The clock on Josh Bailey’s future begins with the top of the Stanley Cup Final, that means the primary domino of the Islanders’ offseason ought to fall inside the subsequent couple of weeks.
The NHL’s buyout interval begins Thursday, and runs till 5 p.m. on June 30.
Presuming the Islanders need to go into free company on July 1 with as a lot cap area as doable accessible to them, that additionally features as a window inside which they need to both discover a commerce associate for Bailey or take what financial savings they will in a buyout.
For a common supervisor who’s famously opaque, Lou Lamoriello was fairly clear about his intentions in talking to reporters final week.
The precedence is re-signing the Islanders’ personal free brokers — Pierre Engvall, Scott Mayfield, Zach Parise and Semyon Varlamov. Lamoriello additionally acknowledged the identical uncomfortable actuality Bailey did on the group’s breakup day a month earlier: The group’s longest-tenured participant is unlikely to be with them subsequent yr.
“In Josh’s case, it appears to be like like perhaps it’s close to the top for right here in our state of affairs,” Lamoriello mentioned. “Josh and I’ve, I feel, a man-to-man relationship so far as honesty, and we are going to work with him to assist him. But my precedence is doing what’s finest for the group.”
Bailey doesn’t have a no-trade clause, so he can not decide his vacation spot. The 33-year-old nonetheless has worth as a locker-room presence, notably on a younger group, although it’s exhausting to see him as something greater than a bottom-six piece provided that he struggled all through final season, scoring simply eight instances and getting healthy-scratched for the complete first spherical of the playoffs.
If a commerce goes to occur, although, it looks as if the pool could be restricted to groups with younger rosters and cap area, the place improvement could be prioritized over profitable and the place getting a draft decide as a part of a deal to tackle Bailey’s $5 million hit could be thought of a win.
That could be the Arizonas, Chicagos, Anaheims and San Joses of the world.
The Islanders don’t have a first- or third-round decide to dangle in a commerce, at the least for the upcoming draft, having spent their first-rounder to get Bo Horvat and their third to dump Andrew Ladd in 2021.
They additionally don’t have subsequent yr’s third-rounder, which went to Toronto within the Pierre Engvall deal.
And it could be robust to think about them giving up their 2023 second-round decide as a result of that will imply they gained’t decide on this draft till the fourth spherical — which feels unpalatable even for a group that places as little emphasis on their farm system because the Islanders do.
Even so, the distinction between a commerce and a buyout might be the distinction between re-signing all 4 of the Islanders’ pending UFAs or not, not to mention one other participant.
If the Islanders purchase out Bailey, they’ll save $2.33 million towards the cap this season at the price of $1.16 million in 2024-25, when the cap is projected to spike.
There is a few $2.66 million distinction between a Bailey commerce and buyout — a not-insignificant proportion of the doubtless accessible cap {dollars} for the Islanders, which might complete roughly $11.13 million if Bailey is handled no gamers coming again.
Remember, along with the 4 unrestricted free brokers, Oliver Wahlstrom and Samuel Bolduc are due new contracts. Parker Wotherspoon is a Group 6 unrestricted free agent, too, although unlikely to be price greater than the league minimal if the Islanders deliver him again.
The math goes to get tight very, very quick — even when the Islanders can transfer Bailey’s complete cap hit.
That makes it all of the extra crucial to get one thing carried out as quickly as doable.
The Dobson protection
A smaller a part of Lamoriello’s presser final week that caught out nonetheless was his defensive response concerning Noah Dobson’s season, notably given the expectations placed on the 23-year-old by Lamoriello just below a yr in the past when signing the defenseman to a three-year, $12 million extension.
“First of all, I feel an excessive amount of criticism has been of Dobson,” Lamoriello mentioned. “Look at his level manufacturing — similar to final yr. And I feel that we put a whole lot of excessive expectations on him. Maybe I did in signing him to a contract. But it’s your second yr, your sophomore yr, so to talk. And folks have a look at him and provides him a little bit extra consideration.
“I’ve spent a while with him postseason as lately as right this moment. And he’s in a fantastic mindset. He is aware of what he can do to be higher, and can try this. And I’ve excessive expectations for him. I feel he’s gonna be certainly one of your elite scoring defensemen on this league earlier than his profession is over.”
Good on Lamoriello for acknowledging that foisting expectations on the defenseman was an error, although a big chunk of the hype got here from Dobson’s personal 2021-22 season as a lot as anything.
It’s not notably true, nonetheless, to counsel that related level manufacturing means he had a equally good season in 2022-23 — the stagnation on the defensive aspect of his recreation was evident, and he struggled to quarterback an influence play that had ranked twelfth within the league a season prior.
But that is the correct of method to take for a participant who nonetheless is early in his improvement and may develop right into a star.
There isn’t any purpose to doubt Lamoriello’s evaluation that Dobson will finally be an elite scoring defenseman proper now, although subsequent season might be telling.
Boxed out
Let’s say for the sake of argument that the Islanders handle to deliver again everybody.
Now reply me this: Where is Simon Holmstrom on the depth chart as of opening night time?
Unless there are mitigating elements within the type of harm or Holmstrom placing collectively an distinctive coaching camp, it isn’t all that simple to discover a place for the 22-year-old, who performed 50 video games final season, however was healthy-scratched through the playoffs.
Remember, it isn’t simply the gamers who made up the lineup within the postseason whom Holmstrom would wish to beat out, but in addition Wahlstrom, who will return from a knee harm.
That state of affairs has the potential to get difficult rapidly for the previous first-round decide.
